With the NBA Regular Season Win Totals opening up on sportsbooks a few weeks ago, you can go ahead and bank on the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trailblazers underperforming in the Western Conference this upcoming season.
It may not be the most bold take in the world to back the under on wins for the Clippers and Blazers, as these two teams all rank among the lowest four win totals across the NBA Western Conference for the 2024-2025 season. However, with a questionable season ahead for Kawhi Leonard and a soon-to-be 35-year old James Harden, as well as an unclear starting rotation in Portland, I believe we could see these win totals drop before the season begins. The Western Conference has twelve teams with win totals set at 40 or greater this upcoming season, and with 82 regular season games it just simply does not work for 80% of the conference to finish above .500 in win percentage.
I’d like to not only make my case for jumping in on the under for these two NBA franchise’s win totals early on, but will also be taking a look at their season outlook in the process. NBA free agency has cooled off and the Olympics have come to a close, meaning the NBA finally rests for a brief moment in time before the preseason gets rolling in October. With these win total markets fresh and not carrying a ton of early liability for sportsbooks, now is our time to pounce on some early value before we lose out on the line movement. Let’s begin with our friends in Portland who will actively be participating in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes over the next ten months.
Portland Trailblazers
Season Win Total: 22.5
The regular season win total may not indicate it, but it is an exciting time to be a Portland Trailblazers fan if you are someone who gets as excited about young, up and coming talent like I do. The Blazers back court is young and full of potential, with last year’s third overall pick Scoot Henderson leading the way alongside 2022 lottery pick Shaedon Sharpe. Anfernee Simons is still around with two years left on his deal, along with DeAndre Ayton and Robert Williams who both hold the same length left on their contracts. Jerami Grant and DeAndre Ayton lead the way on Portland’s payroll, and the Blazers will owe Grant nearly $96M over the next three years before he can pick up his player option in 2027 when he is 33 years of age.
Simons and Ayton offer a particularly interesting angle for the Blazers to take as they continue to try to rebuild, as the pair of mid-twenty-year-old’s could still fit Portland’s timeline or could be candidates to ship out at the deadline for additional draft capital as the Blazers look ahead. Robert Williams and Jerami Grant may be a tougher sell given the Time Lord’s injury history and Grant’s contract situation, but time will tell if team’s get desperate by the time next season rolls around. It is clear Portland wants to try to improve upon last season’s performance though as they acquired Deni Avdija from the Wizards and were able to get rid of Malcom Brogdon while spending some draft capital along the way.
Despite their initial intentions, now is not the time for the Wizards to go for it and try to see where they stand in the West. Bringing in Donovan Clingan in the draft means the writing is on the wall for Ayton and Williams, and Clingan will need time to grow despite his early skillset indicating he can make an instant impact on the defensive end and crashing the boards. However, despite the incoming Avdija and veteran presence of Grant, Portland is completely devoid of wings to help space the floor for their developing talent of Scoot and Shaedon. Simons can help space the floor, but with a usage rate of 28% last season, it’s clear that Simons may be getting in the way of seeing what the Blazers have at guard instead of helping.
The Blazers have a number of chips they can still cash in on across their rotation, and with how the West is currently stacking up going into next season, there has to be a few teams that take the fall in order for the others to rise up. The Thunder, Nuggets, Wolves, and Mavericks remain firmly at the top of the conference, with Memphis, Phoenix, Sacramento, New Orleans, and Houston all competing for the other four spots. The Lakers, Warriors, and Clippers all seem to be primed to show their age, but clearly hold an edge over Portland, and who knows what San Antonio is about to do with another year of Victor Wembanyama.
Even when you stack up Portland against the Eastern Conference, there are still clearly nine to ten teams you can put firmly above them depending on how things shake out. Yes, this is tied for the second-lowest win total in the league, but with a stacked draft at wing and not a lot of answers for Portland to improve, all signs indicate that it will be another retooling season. Sometimes it takes smaller guards like Scoot Henderson multiple seasons to figure things out, as we saw Henderson have a really rough go at his rookie season, receiving a bit of criticism from the crowd who thought he should have been picked second overall before Brandon Miller.
With so many teams improving out West, and the declining franchises still holding a major edge over the rebuilding Blazers, I think it is time we realize what this group is going to be at face value, and take advantage of the opportunity to bet their under while this win total remains in the low-twenties. I’ll be locking in the Portland Trailblazers to win 22 or less games for one unit.
The Play: Portland Trailblazers Under 22.5 Wins (-130) at Bet365
Los Angeles Clippers
Win Total: 41.5
This off-season’s free agency cycle revolved around what Paul George ultimately decided to do with the final leg of his career as he entered free agency for the first time at age 34. After several teams were rumored to land him and Joel Embiid tampered on live TV during the NBA Finals pregame show to try to recruit PG-13, George ultimately decided to head to Philadelphia to join forces with Embiid and young star Tyrese Maxey. Where does this leave the Clippers in the end?
The Clippers were dominant in the regular season after a rough start to the James Harden era seeing Russell Westbrook take a spot on the bench. However, the health of this group once again could not be depended upon and they fell short in the first round of the playoffs to the eventual winners of the Western Conference in Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. With the exit of Paul George, do we really think we can depend on a healthy Kawhi Leonard and James Harden to improve further on where this squad ended last season?
The Clippers finished with a record of 51-31 in the Western Conference which was good enough for the fourth seed behind Oklahoma City, Denver, and Minnesota before their disappointing playoffs showing against the Mavericks. Their win total today now sits at 40.5 in a stacked Western Conference that seems to sit close .500 in win percentage but is far from the middle of the pack in terms of the rest of the conference. The Clippers have the twelfth lowest total in the conference, which would be the ninth lowest in the Eastern Conference if only Los Angeles were on the opposite coast.
The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors sit above the Clippers with their win totals this season as the three aging yet “contending” squads from last season. I do think that the Lakers and Warriors are at risk of regressing this upcoming season, but with both constantly in trade rumors and capable of sending out the assets to make it happen, I am not comfortable playing around with either team’s win totals. These two franchises could even be in the market of doing business with each other following Steph and LeBron’s public love affair during the Olympics. If one of these two teams has a season that ends up even worse than last season, whose to say they may not strike a deal in 2025?
The Clippers don’t really hold this luxury, as they’re still indebted in draft capital to the Oklahoma City Thunder from the deal that landed them Paul George at the end of last decade. On top of this, the role players the Clippers have acquired this offseason are not players that contending teams are chomping at the bit to add in order to push their chips all in to fight for a title this spring. Kawhi Leonard has only played 229 out of 410 possible regular season games for the Clippers since joining the franchise, and James Harden has clearly lost his first step that used to help him beat defenders. I am very worried about what happens for the Clippers this season when it is much easier to believe in them letting down on expectations rather than over performing like they did in 2024.
Steve Ballmer went all in to try to have a very special team for the grand opening of the Clippers new arena this upcoming season. He may have done so a season too soon, with both Westbrook and George out the door with not much to show that either of them even contributed to his franchise’s goals since taking over as owner. I genuinely don’t see a path where the Clippers do much damage against the Thunder, Nuggets, Wolves, Mavericks, Grizzlies, or Kings at the top of the West. On top of that, why should we bank on the Clippers being more successful than the Pelicans, Suns, or Rockets while we are at it? You’ve already heard my thoughts on the other two aging teams, and here we are staring at a win total that’s already down a full win since it opened a few weeks ago at 41.5. Give me the Clippers to go under 40.5 as the elderly and injury prone get older and they possibly look to recoup what little value they can scavenge on the trade market by February.